Paul Keay

65% of brokers predict house prices to rise by 5% or more




Nearly two-thirds (65%) of brokers expect the average house price to rise by more than 5% by the end of 2020, according to new research.

The survey conducted by United Trust Bank (UTB) also found that 35% of brokers predicted growth of 10% or more over the next three years.

However, 35% of brokers expected to see growth of less than 5% with 8% of those expecting prices to remain static or fall.

“It’s interesting that despite there being talk from several quarters that the property market is cooling off, most brokers expect prices to keep rising for at least the next three years,” said Paul Keay, property development director at UTB (pictured above).

“In our experience, the prime London market has seen activity decrease slightly over the last six to nine months and this has translated to lower sales values being achieved in some cases.

“However, on UTB-funded developments outside of that small central London bubble, there is still strong demand and sales activity.

“That would indicate that there’s still plenty of confidence in the new home sector in the wider market, especially when supported by demand-side initiatives like Help to Buy.”

The average UK house price at the end of 2016 was just under £206,000 and rose to £207,699 at the end of April 2017 (figures from the Nationwide index).

Despite this, recent reports have indicated that average house prices fell in both March and April this year, slowing the annual rate of growth to 2.6%.

Around one-third (30%) of brokers now expect the average UK house price to increase to between £216,000-225,000 over the next three years.

Just over a quarter (27%) believed prices would only grow to between £206,000-215,000.

A further 19% expected prices to reach between £226,000-235,000 by the end of 2020.

“Brexit, the UK general election and the spectre of rising inflation and falling growth forecasts create uncertainty,” Paul added.

“However, we should remember that the UK’s housing crisis is not going to simply disappear, whatever happens to the political landscape.

“The only solution is to keep building hundreds of thousands of new homes each year to satisfy demand, and if developers bring well-considered proposals for the right projects in the right places, UTB will continue to provide the funding they need to keep building.”

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