Harley Kagan

Brokers yet to have change of heart over Brexit

Some 45% of brokers would still choose to vote leave in the EU referendum knowing what they know now, according to the latest research.

The United Trust Bank broker sentiment survey – which received 120 responses from brokers working in property and asset finance – revealed that 44% would still vote to remain in the EU.

In addition, 2.5% who voted leave in the referendum had changed to remain, while 1.5% who voted to remain in the referendum had switched to leave.

Including the switchers, the leave/remain vote would be split exactly 46.5%/46.5%, highlighting that despite the government receiving criticism for making slow progress in agreeing the details of Brexit, the confusion over plans for the customs union and concern for the future of the Northern Ireland peace process, leave voters were still dedicated to leave the EU   .

The remaining 7% of respondents were unsure how they would vote in another referendum.

Some 22% of brokers believed that the UK was seen as trailblazing and making a positive step towards greater freedom and independence, while 18% believed that the UK was now seen as a country in chaos.

One third of brokers (33%) believed that the UK’s position as a leader in business, human rights and innovation remained unchanged since before the referendum.

Harley Kagan, managing director at United Trust Bank (pictured above), said that the terms of Brexit seemed to be no clearer now than when Theresa May triggered Article 50 last year.

“However, despite the uncertainty and mounting additional impacts of the UK’s independence, ‘leave’ voters are largely happy with their decision and wouldn’t switch camps. 

“Remainers – despite having seen that the UK economy hasn’t immediately collapsed under the spectre of Brexit – are equally resolute.

“The fact that opinions have not swung in either direction – despite there having been almost non-stop debate and discussion since June 2016 – would suggest that most people made their decisions on ideological grounds rather than the details.

“There’s either a willingness to be part of a bigger union and enjoy the freedoms that brings at the cost of some independence over rules of trade, border control and law-making, or a desire to take back full control of those policy areas at any price.

“Whether those desiring the latter can get back as much control as they would like is looking increasingly doubtful, which is why the government will be keen to avoid being forced into a referendum on the Brexit deal it will eventually have to agree.”

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