London and the rest




The capital really is defying the economic gloom; in fact, it's not so much defying the gloom as cocking a snook at the ailing economy....

The capital really is defying the economic gloom; in fact, it's not so much defying the gloom as cocking a snook at the ailing economy.

In October, according to Land Registry, average house prices in England & Wales fell by 0.3 per cent. London’s rates, on the other hand, grew by 1 per cent in October and have shown growth of 7 per cent over the past year.

This compares to an increase of just 1.1 per cent across England & Wales as a whole. London, to cut a long story short, is in a league of its own.

Low interest rates and a resilient jobs market have definitely acted as a glass floor under prices across the UK, but in London you have the extras of strong (overseas) demand, very limited supply and a robust economic micro-climate. As a result, it's steaming ahead.

I don't expect London prices to show the same level of growth next year — that would be absurd — but at the same time I can't see them recording negative growth next year. There are just too many factors supporting prices.

Interest rates going up will be the real test for the broader property market but I can't see that happening in 2013. Yes, the economy grew in Q3 but it's still very delicate and few are brave enough to rule out a triple dip recession, especially given the apparent death by a thousand cuts of the eurozone.

I expect prices across England & Wales to end 2013 not far off from where they ended up this year. Low transactions will continue to make month-on-month figures volatile but the overall trend will be flat.

For the professional investor, of course, the volatility of the market offers buying opportunities and can significantly drive up yields and capital return.

 

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