Rates, once again, were kept on hold in January's meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee. Nobody, of course, expected anything different.
The economy, if last week's services sector data is anything to go by, is in real danger of a triple-dip recession.
The services sector makes up around three-quarters of the UK economy and, if it contracted in December, it could seriously impact this month's first estimate of Q4 GDP.
The long and short of it is this: the economy may well have shrunk in the final three months of 2012, which is very bad news.
But it gets worse…
The latest services sector Purchasing Managers' Index, which looks into the future, suggests that we are in for a weak first quarter, too. And we all know what two-quarters of negative growth equals: technical recession.
A technical recession, if it happens, amounts to a triple-dip. As far as I'm aware it would be this country's first ever triple-dip. Oh, to be living in these times!
What's almost certain is that rates will be kept on hold at their current level for at least another year and Citibank's illuminati expect them to be on hold until 2017 at the earliest. The risk of raising rates is simply too high, and that I wouldn't deny.
How will all this affect the property market? While the Funding for Lending Scheme seems to be having a bit of an impact, cheap money is nothing if people lack the confidence to buy. And in a triple-dip recession, few will be confident, which will pile more downward pressure on prices.
Once again, the UK economy is walking on thin ice.
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