Kicking off, in recent days we have seen a number of upbeat predictions for the wider mortgage market in 2013. The CML led the way with its estimate that gross mortgage lending will reach £156 billion by the end of the year. Not to be outdone, its younger counterpart – IMLA – chipped in with its own verdict that the figure will be £150 billion. But what’s £6 billion between friends?
Perhaps still smarting from revelations about its part in the recent LIBOR-fixing scandal, the British Bankers’ Association brought up the rear, revealing that its members – heavily subsidised by the Funding for Lending Scheme (FLS) – lent £8.5 billion in December, up nine per cent on November’s figure, and further confirmation of a modest recovery in approvals.
This is good news for short-term lending as a healthy mortgage market produces better and more certain exit opportunities for our borrowers and clients. Buy-to-let, in particular, benefits us in this way, so I welcome this raft of good news from all three leading trade bodies (even if I remain sceptical about the precise influence of FLS on the numbers).
Next up, I couldn’t fail to be impressed by the positive vibes sloshing out of Davos, the glitzy Swiss ski resort that plays hosts to the annual World Economic Forum and its army of hangers-on. Captains of Industry and Colonels of Commerce were veritably lining-up to tell the media “the worst is over” and that the sunny uplands are coming into clear view.
If they believe so, who am I to contradict? What we do know is that the recent crisis in global markets has stifled investment confidence causing companies to hoard cash. As a consequence, it is estimated there is somewhere in the region of $2 trillion (yes… trillion) waiting to be released from corporate balance sheets when the time is judged to be right. It could be sooner than we think.
It was interesting to note, however, that few of the slope-side makers-and-shakers could identify precisely why they thought the corner had been turned. I tend to share the view of one particular sharp-suit who observed simply that people are tired of being depressed and down-beat. Three cheers for that.
And finally, David Cameron woke one morning last week to the unfamiliar chorus of positive headlines. Having set out his stall on Britain’s relationship with the EU, he has finally legitimised and put in motion an important debate denied us for so long. Whether he gets the mandate he needs to hold his referendum in 2017 remains to be seen, but at least the genie’s now out of the bottle.
I won’t hijack this column to reveal my own possible voting intentions. Suffice to say, three high-profile entities have already come out in strong support of our continued membership. They are, in no particular order of importance: The United States of America; Goldman Sachs; and Tony Blair. But ask yourself this: when were any of them interested in what’s best for Britain and the British people rather than what’s best for them?
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