Samuels Says

A symbolic victory




Well there you have it. The economy continues to grow and has now recorded positive growth for the fifth quarter in a row. It's expected to pass its pre-crisis peak over the summer months....

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p>Well there you have it. The economy continues to grow and has now recorded positive growth for the fifth quarter in a row. It's expected to pass its pre-crisis peak over the summer months, which will be a symbolic victory of sorts - we will have made back the ground we lost.

However, I suspect the economy didn't grow as much as the markets had hoped for. 0.8 per cent is better than 0.7 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2013 but deep down the City wanted to see 1 per cent - or even above. That explains why the Pound weakened in the immediate aftermath of the data being released.
Many economists are clinging to the fact that the initial estimate of GDP is based on just 40 per cent of the available data and that the number is likely to improve once the full findings are available. But for the time being we are at 0.8 per cent.
Whatever your views on the number, George Osborne was right to warn that, while the economy is growing, we cannot take this growth for granted. There’s still a long way to go yet.
Overall, though, slightly underwhelming growth of 0.8 per cent may be the figure that is best for the economy. If the GDP number had come in at 1 per cent, even more pressure would have been on the Bank of England to raise interest rates.
And while the economy is doubtlessly improving, I'm still not sure that this economy is anywhere near as robust as some think it is - and therefore able to withstand rate hikes.
Bank of England Governor, Mark Carney, has claimed that the economic recovery is broad-based and sustainable, but there are still concerns that we are too reliant on the services sector, i.e. the consumer. 
There's little doubt that consumers are confident, something that is being reflected through rising house prices and movement in the jobs market.
The growing confidence was certainly confirmed in a poll this week by the Centre for Economics and Business Research. This recorded consumer confidence at its highest level since August 2007, arguably the last month of innocence.
But if the consumer fizzles out, what are we left with?
 

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