The article got a fair bit of attention — in part, I'm sure, because of the emotive phrase and headline, "freaking out'. The media, as you can imagine, loves that kind of thing.
Asked for my own views on high-end London property, I agreed that the sales market for homes valued above £2,500 per square foot is certainly on its knees, and that there are a lot of nerves in the capital right now among residential developers, owner-occupiers and borrowers alike.
There’s no doubt that the new stamp duty regime has had a massive effect. Even the super rich think twice when they’re facing the prospect of spending a million pounds just for the right to actually buy a super-prime London property.
I have to say, the whole thing feels a tad surreal. It seems like only yesterday that I was reading articles in the Evening Standard on how annual growth rates in some boroughs of the capital were well over 20%. That was the boom.
The question now is has the capital entered a bust? While the weight of this word might apply to the very top end, for London, as a whole, my feeling is that what we are really seeing is a much needed correction. Put another way, the everyday London lived in by us mere mortals is more likely to plateau than fall off a cliff.
Demand among borrowers has without doubt been tempered by a deep caution, but that demand is still there - and always will be.
Whatever Brexit may throw at us, and however much demand slows at the very high end, this is still the capital city, after all. People will always want - and need - to live and work here. And believe it or not, there are still opportunities, but only developers, buyers and lenders who are on top of their game should take them up.
The irony is that our lending volumes haven't suffered in the slightest from the (super) prime slump. One thing that has been very evident in house price indices over the past 12 months or so is how other areas of the country, specifically the East, South East and South West, are benefiting from the capital's correction.
A fair bit of demand among owner-occupiers and investors alike has shifted away from the capital to regions where there is still value, not to mention yield and growth potential.
In the meantime, London will continue to be reined in as wages - and reality - catch up with it.
Attributed to Mark Posniak, Managing Director of Dragonfly Property Finance
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