Professionals express optimism for UK property market despite economic climate and potential tax hikes

In attendance at the lender’s event at the Arts Club in Mayfair on 26th September, was panel chair and media commentator, Russell Quirk (pictured above, far right) as well as property journalist, Nigel Lewis (pictured above, second from right).

Also on the panel was commercial director at Project Chartered Surveyors, Colin Horton (pictured above, centre), director of UK Property Development, Andy Morrison (pictured above, far left), and barrister and partner at Keystone Law, James Tumbridge (pictured above, second from left).

The main theme of the discussion was the Labour government and its potential impact on the UK property market, including Keir Starmer’s upcoming Autum budget and its potentially ‘painful’ elements, as well as the government’s 1.5 million new home pledge and its potential positive impact on interest rates.

The panel was in consensus that potential tax increases, not least on ‘wealth taxes’ such as capital gains and stamp duty could have a detrimental impact on the UK property market due to hesitation rather than desertion.

James Tumbridge said foreign investors, especially those with an interest in commercial assets, would be eager to see the details of the budget before making any moves but were far from rejecting the UK, especially London, as a major investment destination.

He also believed that stamp duty should be replaced with a sales tax, saying; “It makes more sense to tax on exit rather than entry.”

Participants were also optimistic about a further drop in interest rates after the BoE made its first reduction in four years to 5%, with much of market sentiment predicting further rate cuts by the end of the year.

Panellists saw that interest rates and potential future hurdles such as the budget and taxes would have little impact on the forward momentum of prime markets such as London, while Nigel lewis was optimistic about the property market as a whole, despite the economic climate.

“Broadly speaking, it’s politicians and interest rates that do damage to the property market — once those are overcome, property markets flourish…there are too few homes to satisfy demand, so the market always moves.”

Meanwhile, Colin Horton reported seeing strong transaction numbers, despite the recent economic uncertainties, while Andy Morrison had had seen an increase in demand, especially from younger buyers, for homes over £1m in commuter towns.

Commenting on the event, Paul Munford, CEO and founder of Century Capital, said: “It was another great gathering of minds for our Breakfast Briefing.

“The insights shared were invaluable, highlighting the resilience and adaptability of the UK property market — despite the potential upcoming tax changes, the underlying fundamentals remain strong, particularly in London.

“The expected easing of interest rates will drive confidence and transaction levels across the board.

“I want to thank all of the panellists for their time and their brilliant insights, and everyone who attended for making it another really valuable event.”