Ordinarily, the answer would be no. Despite what politicians claim to the contrary, the difference they can make to the national economy – and by extension the property sector - is increasingly limited.
In a globalised world, the relatively minor disagreements over policy between the main political parties are surprisingly insignificant: don’t believe one lot when they warn the others will be disastrous, any more than you trust the other lot to deliver the transformational improvements they promise.
This time, however, might just be different.
For one thing, housing policy looks set to be a major election issue. Also, the outcome of the election is unpredictable, with the potential for all sorts of unlikely deals between parties based on policy compromises, so it’s very difficult to forecast what we’ll end up with.
Take the Mansion Tax, which is sure to feature prominently on the campaign trail; both Labour and the LibDems want an annual levy on houses worth more than £2m, which might well have a distorting effect at that end of the market.
The Conservatives, on the other hand, are opposed to the Mansion Tax – but might it be a price worth paying to secure a coalition deal with the LibDems if the results fall in the right way?
Then there’s housebuilding. All three main parties share the view that Britain needs to build more houses, but so far at least Labour has moved closest to making a commitment to targets, with a commitment to 200,000 homes a year and greater powers for councils to reserve properties for first-time buyers – expect them to make that an important campaign pledge if their rivals can’t match it.
And while an increase in housing supply will take time to come on stream, it may affect expectations about price movements much more quickly.
Mortgage finance may be another campaign issue. One potential flagship Conservative proposal is a scheme that will provide English first-time buyers with a 20 per cent discount on property purchases. That might have an impact on demand at this end of the housing market.
What of the LibDems? Well, as well as the Mansion Tax, it is also thinking about the rest of the housing market.
One of its plans, for example, is to give councils the freedom to suspend the Right to Buy scheme in their local area, preventing council tenants from buying their homes even if they want to. Again, this would have an effect on the property market in certain areas.
So many uncertainties, so little time. In a normal election year, the housing market proves pretty immune to the vagaries of politics, though no market likes instability. This, however, isn’t a normal election. Watch this space.
Jonathan Samuels
Chief Executive, Dragonfly Property Finance
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