Stock taking the recession

Basking in the sun on a recent autumn afternoon, I took courage and revisited a number of Lead Taker articles already gone to print, in the hope of finding some "mellow fruitfulness”.

Going back as far as December 2011, I found I was extolling the benefits of "upglamming" - that is taking time to refresh both the fabric and strategy of your business, as we embarked upon an uncertain year ahead.

Almost two years down the line, I am still happy to offer up the same advice as follows:  

"Upglamming is equally essential for our own industry, which you may have noticed is not getting any younger.

"Why would the young want to join us if we lack glamour? If we can't bewitch the eyes of others and make the best use of our skills, commitment and enthusiasm?

"On that note? How are your business cards? Crisp print and embossed? If not, get to it!"

Moving on to April 2012, I was surprised to find myself in equally positive mood and urging readers to play "I Spy the end of the recession":

"Once you have ticked enough 'I Spy' boxes you will surely lighten up, instilling confidence in your clients, and at this point you should expect to send off for your 'I Spy' badge.

"Unfortunately, you are stuck with making your own cardboard variety but it's worth the effort as once coloured in and pinned on, I can promise that you will see things in a better light ... here's hoping this is the glimmer at the end of the tunnel!"

As July 2012 arrived, it was time to swallow hard and take a look at the latest banking scandal summed up as follows:

"There have always been some greedy and some corrupt bankers. After all, banks equal money and money equals power, so expect the banking sector to be home to egos that wouldn't fit into a Franciscan monastery, cheats and liars, along with the highly professional and dedicatedly honest.

"Given the above, when we have allowed traders to set their market place and treasury departments to be paid on commission, how can we be shocked at the idea of LIBOR being manipulated?

"Personally, I am an advocate of light-touch or even self-regulation but anyone who doesn't understand the downsides of these approaches must be dafter than a brush, naive or stupid - particularly so when governance of LIBOR allowed banks to pre-set their own asset and balance sheet positions.

"But let's not sacrifice Barclays, HSBC and the rest on the altar of the ill informed, superstitious and down right ignorant because traders and chief executives are only human and banking history is littered with the consequences of their misdemeanours."

The year whizzed on to December when I admitted to being encouraged in supernatural belief by some of the policies adopted to counter the credit crisis - notably the notion that regulation would solve the problems it had a hand in creating.

Another item worth revisiting from the end of last year involves the magical qualities of quantitative easing.

We have all watched it happen - money appears out of nowhere to boost lending in the economy and then disappears again once the banks get hold of it - summed up in Lead Taker as follows:

"Clearly, very clever people in very responsible jobs believe that toughening up regulation will stop banks blowing themselves up and that QE will create sustained economic growth, even when it is channelled through banks whose balance sheets are made all the hungrier from increased regulation."

Delving into 2013 I found a trip down memory lane as we head for the latest showdown in the US that could end in global economic catastrophe.

Remember this!: "The problem with the term "fiscal cliff" is that it suggests an either / or scenario which meant US politicians had to chose between driving their economy over the edge in a final act of defiance reminiscent of Themla and Lousie, or sanity prevailing".

By May of this year, I had drawn up an order of priority for three commercial genie wishes:

"Wish 1: That the last of the European bailouts happens soon. This is most likely to be Slovenia. Hopefully this might restore some kind of economic normality and wellbeing to the Union and may help to prevent the ugly rise of nationalism from creeping across Europe. It should be recognized that nationalism in all its forms is the last bastion of a scoundrel.

Wish 2: That the Financial Conduct Authority does not turn out to be an inhumane blunt instrument with a mission to batter and bludgeon members of the financial services industry who are trying, in the main, to do a good job for their clients and themselves.

Wish 3: My third and most heartfelt wish is that we see a return in the UK to some kind of financial normality in terms of trading conditions, with an increase in competition in the banking sector to provide much more choice for the consumer and the intermediary. Competition really is good for everyone and whether that competition comes from home or abroad does not concern me, because with competition comes innovation and flexibility, features which are sadly lacking in the current UK lending sector."

Well, that certainly serves as a reminder that I need to rub the genie lamp again, particularly on Wish 3.

I am ending my stock take of Lead Taker with Mark Carney's appointment as Governor of the Bank of England and the jury still out on a couple of questions that are bugging me:

"Is it possible that George Osborne's lauding of Mark Carney for "strong leadership and a fresh new perspective" didn't taken into account Canada's conservative banking sector, which never required that much of a bail out, and the country's riches in the form of natural resources still much in demand in China?

"Then there's the question of "strong leadership". Where is the evidence? And what kind of strong leadership is required when deep perils await either side of a shift in the base rate?

"In my experience strong leadership doesn't necessarily equate to "staying power" of the kind exhibited by Mervyn King in the long and weary years since 2007."

If I seem to have embarked on a self-congratulatory exercise in this month's Lead Taker, please excuse. Since 2011, each time I have sat down to take an angle on the challenges facing the broking community I have done so in the hope of making life easier to bear and tolerate, whilst promoting best practice and professional development.

And what has prompted this altruism? The answer is simple, I would rather be a lone wolf howling in the wilderness than sit in a corner with a smug look on my face knowing all along I should have told you so!

Yours

The Lead Taker