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Prudence maketh the business




In the last couple of weeks, the odd jitter I felt when contemplating a South East Asian slump escalated into a full shudder..

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p style="margin: 0px; font-family: Arial;">In the last couple of weeks, the odd jitter I felt when contemplating a South East Asian slump escalated into a full shudder. It began when a renewed slowdown in the US and problems in China meant the Federal Reserve held off an interest rate rise, prompting the question “Fed or Dead?” Hopefully not dead, because there is a narrow window during which rates can rise gradually - missing that could mean a series of hikes which would send shockwaves throughout the global economy.

Then, Andrew Haldane, Chief Economist of the Bank of England (BoE), gave a speech entitled “How Low Can You Go?”, explaining how low interest rates hinder the effectiveness of monetary policy - but suggesting that “more likely than not, interest rates may need to return to ground zero at some point in the future”.

As if that wasn’t enough, Mark Carney, BoE Governor, followed up by revisiting the “debt super-cycle” built up prior to the financial crisis. In part, this was created by the stagnation of middle-class real wages…and in the Governor’s words “let them eat cake” became “let them eat credit”. It strikes me that when it comes to household debt, little has changed.

So, uncertainty abounds, UK manufacturing is in the doldrums and reports show that the Flash China General Manufacturing Output Index stood at 45.7 in September (46.4 in August), a 78-month low.

As well as taking up the impact of the slowdown in the West, China has to accommodate changes in the West’s workforces, which have become more flexible and innovative since the recession. And some businesses are unable to secure decent trade finance for imports, increasing China’s woes.

The pain of China’s slowdown is being felt across South East Asia and Australia. Along with other mining groups, BHP Billiton’s profit has plummeted (down by over 60% in the year to end June) owing to the slump in commodity prices. And economies that previously basked in China’s glow including Malaysia, Indonesia and Thailand, have seen their currencies hit lows last seen in 1998, when the South East Asian bubble burst. 

I could now turn to Brazil, where ratings on government bonds have been cut to “junk” status and Russia where…but I think I have made my point. Uncertainty abounds.

As you would expect from a true Brit, I can see no “silver lining” as the storm clouds approach and am convinced that any chinks of light will have to be self-generated. It’s time to take a look at your business and make sure that cash flow is positive and that surpluses are real, showing up as money in the bank account. After that, move on to a strategic review of your overheads, which should include considering whether or not you need designer water in the office. Make sure you have control of external budgets such as entertainment, and don’t forget those crazy deals that just might get funding. It’s more than likely that they are just crazy deals and this is not a time to be over trading. It’s a time to batten down the hatches and not be caught out. 

So I will leave you with a twist on the recently departed Yogi Berra’s recommendation that you should “always go to other people’s funerals otherwise they won’t come to yours”. I think he is saying “stay popular”. I am, however, saying don’t bother - because it’s better off being less popular if it means you can avoid your own funeral. I’m saying stay informed and follow the advice above.

 

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