Is there any house price logic?




How is it that, in the latest Land Registry house price index, Wales saw prices rise by 3.6 per cent in February, while the North East saw the value....

How is it that, in the latest Land Registry house price index, Wales saw prices rise by 3.6 per cent in February, while the North East saw the value of the average home rise by 3.4 per cent during that month? Even in extraordinary London the average price fell by 0.1 per cent in February.

We can't even put the data down to a monthly anomaly, as the annual change in Wales has been 1.7 per cent and in the North East it has been a whopping 4.3 per cent. OK, neither comes anywhere close to the capital, where prices have risen 6.3 per cent over the past year, but their performance is still exceptional in the current economic climate.

So what can be causing this?

The answer lies in the extraordinary performance of house prices in Blaenau Gwent and Merthyr Tydfil in February. Prices in Gwent rose by 9.9 per cent in just one month and are up 11.5 per cent over the year. In Merthyr Tydfil, meanwhile, prices fell by 0.7 per cent in February but are up an eye-watering 15.1 per cent over the year.

Now, you're not telling me that the average price of the average property in Gwent and Merthyr has risen by 11.5 per cent and 15.1 per cent respectively in just 12 months?

The Land Registry itself singles out the real reason why prices in these areas have performed as they have. Not only have overall UK sales volumes fallen even further — to an average of 56,886 per month (relative to 61,392 a year ago) — but two of the areas that have especially low sales volumes (and unusually volatile) prices are Gwent and Merthyr.

The illogic of house prices is more often than not due to the logic of low sales volumes.

In short, prices in Wales and the North East are being exaggerated by the fact that hardly any properties are selling. Given that volumes across the UK as a whole are so low, too, this suggests prices across the entire market should be taken with a pinch of salt.


 

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