Did the Autumn Statement hit the mark? Industry reacts




Earlier today (17th November), chancellor of the exchequer Jeremy Hunt delivered his Autumn Statement in Parliament.

According to Hunt, the plan will tackle the cost of living and rebuild the UK’s economy, prioritising stability, growth and public services.

During his speech, the chancellor confirmed that the stamp duty tax cuts will now end on 31st March 2025.

In addition, the threshold at which higher earners start to pay the 45% additional rate of tax will be reduced from £150,000 to £125,140 from April next year.

Meanwhile, income tax, National Insurance and inheritance tax thresholds will be frozen for a further two years until April 2028.

The chancellor also announced that the government will reduce the tax-free allowance for capital gains from £12,300 to £6,000 next year, and £3,000 from April 2024.

The tax-free dividend allowance will be lowered to £1,000 in 2023/24 and £500 in 2024/25 as well.

For the social rented sector, he revealed that the government will cap the increase in social rents at a maximum of 7% in 2023/24.

Unlike his predecessor Kwasi Kwarteng, Hunt confirmed he has no objection to windfall taxes, as long as they are temporary and are “genuinely about windfall profits caused by unexpected increases in energy prices”.

Therefore, he announced an increase in the energy profits levy from 25% to 35%, applicable from 1st January 2023 until March 2028, and the introduction of a new temporary 45% levy on electricity generators.

Hunt also highlighted the government's commitment to reduce energy consumption from buildings and industry by 15% by 2030 to support this, he pledged an additional £6bn of funding to drive improvements in energy efficiency.

“There is a global energy crisis, a global inflation crisis and a global economic crisis, but the British people are tough, inventive and resourceful,” said the chancellor.

“We have risen to bigger challenges before; we aren’t immune to these headwinds, but with this plan for stability, growth and public services, we will face into the storm.”

Property and specialist finance industry responds to the Autumn Statement 2022

This section will be constantly updated throughout the day — check regularly for more comments from industry experts

4:30 pm

Peter Howarth, credit risk manager at Mint Property Finance:

"Against a backdrop of higher taxes, higher interest rates and the highest inflation for 40 years people will, unfortunately, for the time being, have less (if any) surplus funds available than in previous years.  As borrowers adjust their spending habits to, for example, cover necessities, I forecast that the ‘knock-on effect’ in 2023 will be that there will be a slowdown in the property sector until incomes recover.

"This is where the strength of lenders' loan books will be seen.  This said, if the Government’s budget plan delivered today comes to fruition we can hope that the impact on the property sector will be temporary.  A lender’s ability to monitor and react to the changing market will be key to business success in the forthcoming year. “

3:55 pm

Stuart Law, CEO at the Assetz Group:
 
“Balancing the books further stabilises the mortgage market, meaning we will now likely avoid the most severe scenarios for house price depreciation, while some buyers may be able to revive their hunt for a new home with relative security that mortgage rates won’t keep ratcheting up. That being said, with inflation still high, a package of tax rises will further eat into household budgets, and this will take its toll, putting homeownership out of reach for more people and bringing house prices down from the historic highs we’ve see over recent years.
 
“Housebuilders will have their heads in their hands as Jeremy Hunt failed to afford any time to planning reform, while the retention of the SDLT cut will protect demand over coming years at a time when a huge imbalance in market forces sits at the heart of our national housing crisis. Until we stop kicking the can down the road, we will never build enough homes, or take steps to make housing more accessible and affordable for more people.
 
“Housebuilders and other housing providers will also be deeply concerned that the imperative for government departments to find efficiency savings will mean less public sector investment in the housing sector, as well as planning delays at already under-funded local authorities. Private sector investment in the housing sector will be absolutely essential in the years ahead if we are to fund the new homes that are desperately needed across the country.
 
“In the rental market, the Truss government already delivered the knock-out blow to the buy-to-let sector in the form of interest rate rises, compounding issues caused by tightening regulation and the impacts of inflation on running costs. This statement will squeeze landlord’s personal finances even more while the profitability of their investment properties continues to decline. More landlords will leave the sector, reducing rental stock and driving rents up.
 
“Now is the moment for us to adopt a new model for private investment in the rental sector which enables investors to fund the delivery of more high quality properties and make them available for fairer rents, while at the same time achieving a far better return, avoiding the expense of property maintenance or a buy to let mortgage and cutting out the stress of managing bricks and mortar.” 

3:50 pm

Eddie Tuttle, director of policy, external affairs and research at the Chartered Institute of Building:

“While the cost of living and energy crisis are rightly priorities for government, the role of the construction industry in addressing both of them is, in our view, being underestimated and this has been evident in today’s autumn statement. We do look forward to seeing the government’s plans for the funding it has today allocated to improving energy efficiency and hearing more of the detail, which is currently lacking.

“The built environment sector is, without doubt, pivotal in reducing carbon emissions — not only during the construction of new buildings and critical infrastructure, but also in the retrofitting of existing homes to make them more energy efficient. Without this, government will not meet its target of reducing the carbon emissions from buildings by 15% by 2030 and reduce household energy bills, which continue to be one of the biggest concerns for the UK population. 

“Continuing investment and forward planning from a stable government is critical to enable the construction sector to properly plan ahead with confidence and play its part in addressing net zero, levelling up and ultimately the cost of living and energy issues faced by millions.”

3:40 pm

Jeremy Leaf, north London estate agent and a former RICS residential chairman:

As with all these financial statements, sometimes it's as much what the Chancellor doesn’t say as what he does, with the full implications becoming apparent at a later date.

'On the face of it, the Chancellor appears to have done very little to compromise the property market and number of transactions, which is good news. Of course, there will be less money in people’s pockets when it comes to buying property and worries about rising interest rates will remain. 

'There may be an issue for larger development projects where investors and builders will be thinking about longer-term implications for the stamp duty changes which are scheduled for March 2025.

'The capital gains tax changes are disappointing as they could have a significant impact on the rental sector. The fact is that we need landlords; everyone knows rents are too high and there are not enough affordable homes to sell or for rent. We want to encourage landlords to stay in the sector and new ones to enter the market, reducing the upwards pressure on rents and stemming the flow of departure. 

'Hopefully, landlords won’t sell now before this measure is introduced, as that will be bad not only for the rental market but the sales market too, as it will increase supply in the latter, reducing property prices more rapidly and therefore undermining confidence. If properties flood the market as a result, it won’t be good for sales or lettings.'

3:25pm

John Phillips, national operations director at Just Mortgages:

"The budget may seem like a non-event where the housing market was concerned with stamp duty and planning remaining the same. However, it was arguably just what was needed.  With the rest of the economy changing around us, the housing market will now benefit from stability rather than further changes.

“With inflation at 11% the housing market may continue to slow for some time but even then house prices are unlikely to be less than they were even a year ago.

"Now it is time for brokers to address the cost-of-living issues with their clients, ensuring that all their clients have protection in place and reaching out proactively to carry out financial reviews to ensure that their clients are in the best financial position they can be.”

3:15pm

Amir Firdaus, CFO at Offa:

“The chancellor had a near impossible task to balance the books, while trying to steer the economy away from recession. Few, however, will be happy with the austerity measures Hunt has outlined in his Autumn Statemet.

“The UK desperately needs more new homes. The housing sector is already strained with insufficient property to meet the demands of renters, but sadly we saw little relief for them or BTL landlords. 

“By cutting the dividend and capital gains tax thresholds, the chancellor continues the trend of making BTL property investment difficult. This could see a withdrawal of BTL properties from the market, as landlords look for an exit strategy, risking a real crisis in the private rental sector. 

“The one positive is the extension of the stamp duty reductions until 2025. It would have been better for market stability if there was no end date on these reductions, but this temporary measure will at least help to mitigate the expected downturn in the housing market.”

Jamie Lennox, director at Dimora Mortgages:

"The cuts to the capital gains allowance threshold could be the final nail in the coffin for small BTL owners; they're already facing rising rates and the reality is that they can't borrow enough on a remortgage to switch lenders.

"This could lead to a huge sell-off from landlords that could lead to house prices dropping at a faster rate than they already are."

Matthew Jackson, director at Mint FS:

"This statement has left me slightly ambivalent; I'm both disappointed not to see measures to support the housing market and landlords specifically, but also relieved that this was a competent delivery and that this chancellor actually managed to find his calculator."

2:38pm

Jo Breeden, managing director at Crystal Specialist Finance:

"While it is welcome to see that the reduction in stamp duty levy previously announced will remain until 2025, there is nothing within the chancellor’s Autumn statement to directly support the housing market. 

"We wait to see how the money markets will react to it, as it was market reaction to the mini-Budget in September that led to the recent increases in rates we have seen."

2:30pm

Brian Murphy, head of lending at Mortgage Advice Bureau:

“It’s heartening to see the government devote a further £6bn to insulating the UK’s ageing housing stock, as the net zero deadline of 2050 starts loom closer.

"The responsibility of solving energy efficiency in our homes is yet to be fully claimed, and while it may be a joint effort between homeowners, lenders, councils and the government, it’s good to see some solid investment promised  better insulated homes also mean lower bills and will go some way to solving the cost of living crisis.

"What will be interesting to note is how easy the government makes it for homeowners to apply for government support to improve the efficiency of their homes  previous green home initiatives have seen poor take-up or been abandoned completely."

1:45pm

Paresh Raja, CEO at MFS:

“With a £55bn fiscal black hole to fill, Hunt’s task today was far from easy. Admittedly, the austerity measures announced in the Autumn Statement will contribute to reducing the deficit, but the announcement will do little to settle the nerves of those in the BTL sector.

“In the midst of rising interest rates and the aftermath of the mini-Budget, BTL landlords are seeing the value of their assets decline, while the cost of borrowing and property maintenance continues to rise. These issues have not been addressed today, and are harming the viability of owning a BTL property, which is forcing many landlords to consider selling their properties.

“According to MFS’ research, 40% of landlords are now planning on selling one or more of their properties in the next 12 months; such an exodus from the market would present an apocalyptic challenge to an extremely competitive private rental sector that is already grappling with rampant demand and a perennial undersupply of homes. 

“Make no mistake, if the government fails to support BTL landlords in the months to come, such a situation would be catastrophic for renters.”

Jatin Ondhia, CEO at Shojin:

“Sunak and Hunt have been caught between a rock and a hard place; the pressure of plugging a £55bn fiscal hole has led to a Dickensian Autumn Statement, which left little room for any rabbits to be pulled out of the hat. 

“While the main focus of these austerity measures is to attempt to patch up the country’s finances without rattling the markets, the giant elephant in the room is that the housing crisis is deepening.

"The affordability, quality and volume of homes is worsening for residents, as the upwards pressure on rent is being exacerbated by rising demand and a dwindling supply of homes. This is a national issue and one that can only be solved by taking decisive action to support housing development and boost the delivery of new homes. 

“With housing representing the highest living cost for most, we cannot afford for this ongoing crisis to be once again swept under the carpet in the face of mounting fiscal pressures.”

Richard Campo, founder of Rose Capital Partners:

“Putting a deadline on the stamp duty changes is a really bad idea — the only good thing that came of the infamous mini budget was that the stamp duty allowance wasn’t time limited. 

“What always happens when you create a deadline?  It creates a rush to hit the deadline, which pushes up prices artificially.

“Also, what comes next? Going back to the current scheme or not? That wasn’t mentioned, so the devil will be in the detail here.”

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