Inflation falls to 10.5% and average house price drops slightly to £295,000 — industry reacts




The office for National Statistics (ONS) has revealed that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) has fallen to 10.5% in the 12 months to December 2022, down from 10.7% in November.

This marks a second consecutive monthly decline after October’s record level, which was the highest annual rate recorded in the National Statistic series’ 25-year history.

The CPI including owner occupiers’ housing costs (CPIH) also dropped to 9.2%, compared to 9.3% in November.

According to the ONS, the largest downward contribution in both the CPIH and CPI rates came from transport, clothing, and recreation and culture.

However, rising prices in restaurants and hotels, as well as food and beverages made the largest, partially offsetting, upward contribution.

Meanwhile, the latest House Price Index data — released in tandem with the inflation figures — showed that UK average house prices rose by 10.3% in the year to November.

Average house prices came in at £295,000 in November, marking a slight decrease from last month’s record high of £296,000.

Industry experts react to latest ONS inflation and house price index figures

This section will be constantly updated throughout the day — check regularly for more comments from industry experts

12:15pm

Mark Harris, chief executive at SPF Private Clients:

“Inflation dipping for the second month in a row to 10.5% will help ease some pressure on the Bank of England but another increase in base rate next month is still on the cards.

“Back in November, both swaps and fixed-rate mortgages were rather higher than they now, as a result of the fallout of the mini-budget.

“Much of that turmoil has passed through the system now, with swaps and fixes continuing to fall.

“While the days of the sub-1% five-year fix may be long gone, it’s only a matter of time before they edge below 4% as the cost of funds falls, servicing pressures subside and lenders look to originate new business.”

1:50pm

Nathan Emerson, chief executive at Propertymark:

“In November, our agents reported a market that was on the cusp of seeing purchasing power handed back to buyers which was a trend we hadn’t seen in months.

“Interestingly, estate agents in London are reporting buyers agreeing sales at under the asking price, however agents in the North West are seeing properties sell for asking price very quickly after being marketed, sometimes in a matter of days.

"Buyers are looking for more affordable properties, if sellers are realistic with their pricing, there are plenty of serious buyers out there that will move quickly.”

11:45am

Tomer Aboody, director at MT Finance:

“With sales volumes at virtually 50% of what they were the previous November, it's no surprise there has been another increase in property values even though the cost of living and interest rates continue to rise. 

“Pent-up demand and ready buyers are still there to make a move, but lack of stock is keeping market demand high, resulting in an uptick in prices on an annual basis.

“Some government intervention is needed in order to increase activity and there would be nothing better than a stamp duty adjustment in order to get people moving.”

10:30am

Jeremy Leaf, north London estate agent and a former RICS residential chairman: 

"This most comprehensive of all the housing market surveys always commands attention.

"However, the figures mainly reflect what was happening in the quieter period between September's disastrous mini-budget and the lead up to Christmas. 

"On the ground, since our return to work nearly three weeks ago, we have noticed the release of some pent-up demand now mortgage rates have begun to fall. 

"Activity has been supported by gloomy predictions for prices in the media, which has reduced buyer and seller expectations and resulted in agreed sales at more realistic levels."

9:21am

Riz Malik, director at R3 Mortgages:

"Inflation has declined and should continue to decline. However, we are not out of the woods yet.

“Even with this data, I would be surprised if the Bank of England does not raise interest rates again at least once in the coming months.

“Lenders are lowering rates to attract new business by reducing the margins they previously built into their products.

“This trend will continue but do not expect mortgage rates to return to the good old days.

"If the Bank of England's forecast that inflation will fall dramatically by the end of this year is correct, this could result in a reversal of rate increases.

“This helps to explain why many people are still hesitant to take long-term fixed rates in the current market."

9:15am

Jamie Lennox, director at Dimora Mortgages:

"It's a positive sign to finally see inflation falling.

“However, it's still only a small drop and there is certainly some way to go to reach the 2% target, so we could still see further increases in the base rate until inflation starts to fall at a quicker rate.

"The concerns around inflation and the cost of living crisis have led to a slower housing market compared to what we've become accustomed to over recent years, so we are now seeing lenders going toe to toe to fight it out on winning a larger market share from a reduced pool of transactions.

"Fixed rates continue to fall and we could start to see some low 4% deals materialise and, if we're really lucky, high 3s."

9:00am

Giles Coghlan, chief market analyst at HYCM:

“After months of turmoil, today’s downside print was anticipated by the markets, and should result in support for the GBP on the relief that the UK economy is pulling back from a stagflationary precipice.

“Oil prices have been weaker as of late, while inflationary pressures are now starting to ease in many economies around the world.

“Finally, UK inflation appears to be falling in line with these global trends, although a wage-price spiral and businesses increasing prices remain as risk factors.”

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