Outlook for residential market 'modestly brighter on a consistent basis'




The latest RICS UK residential market survey revealed significant improvements in the resi property market, from sales volumes to strengthening house prices.

The survey showed that the outlook for sales volumes over the next twelve months have improved, influenced by expectations of future interest rate cuts by the Bank of England.

Nationally, new buyer enquiries were at +7% in January, up from -3% in December.

This result is consistent with a gradual recovery for buyer demand, and while relatively modest, it is the strongest demand since February 2022.

Further to this, agreed sales also saw a rise in sentiment, tilting positive from -5% previously to +5%.

Even more encouragingly, respondents see sales picking up over the next three months, with +14% on balance stating that they believe rises are coming. 

Long term, the positivity increases with +44% believing that sales volumes will increase over the next twelve months.

House prices at a national level returned a result of -18%, indicating continuing price falls overall.

However, this result has strengthened for five successive months, and is the strongest reading since October 2022.

Senior economist at RICS, Tarrant Parsons, said: “The UK housing market has seen a continued improvement in buyer activity through the early part of the year, supported by the recent easing in mortgage interest rates.

“Although sales volumes through much of the year ahead are likely to remain relatively subdued compared to the long term average, the outlook has now turned modestly brighter on a consistent basis over the past few survey reports.

“However, this is not to say that mortgage affordability isn’t still a significant challenge, and any further unwelcome surprises with regards to inflation may still cause interest rate expectations to be revised.

“That would then pose a significant risk to any prospective recovery in the months ahead, even if the current prognosis is for the market to see a further pick-up in activity levels.”

Jeremy Leaf, north London estate agent and former RICS residential chairman, added: "The faster-than-expected drop in inflation has increased lender appetite, exerted downward pressure on mortgage rates and prompted more demand, especially for family houses as part of a tentative market recovery.

"Looking forward, the prospect of budget goodies is also helping to raise confidence, particularly while employment remains so strong. 

"Expectations are growing that house prices have passed their low point and over-optimism will stop any recovery in its tracks.

“Sellers need to recognise that more viewings don’t necessarily result in more offers.”

Tomer Aboody, director at MT Finance, concluded: "With expected cuts to interest rates to come this year, the market is reacting positively with more sellers looking to take advantage of the upturn in confidence. 

“Numerous mortgage rate reductions mean affordability is starting to seem more realistic for those buyers who have been waiting a while and are keen to get on with their moves.”

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